The EIA’s recent AEO (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/) is optimistic about liquids growth but predicts imports will still account for around one third of the US’ consumption in 2035. Even its production figures should be looked at carefully because it puts a number of different items in under the “liquids” banner. Much of the US’ imports are likely to come from Canada, given the security of supply and its proximity.

The other issue you raise is the one of oil being a global commodity, which is true, but the US is not a global player. Exports of crude are essentially prohibited apart from particular instances – small amounts to Canada are allowed, as are shipments of California’s particularly heavy crude and some from Alaska. WTI, for instance, does fluctuate as a result of global incidents – for instance concerns about stability in the Middle East – but it is as much, if not more, driven by local factors, such as changes in transport capacity around Cushing. (Shameless self promotion: http://drake.newsbase.com/2012/10/the-oil-worlds-cleavage-and-north-american-exports/)

Thus, your statement: “If you drill more in South Dakota, that oil just goes into the barrel and everybody—Americans, Chinese, Argentinians—can buy it.” Is not true in quite the sense you present it. Instead it’s more a case of an extra barrel that does not have to be imported into the US from, say, West Africa, allowing this to go to China, or Argentina, or wherever.

The benefit of the Keystone XL is that it would allow more oil to flow from Alberta to the Gulf Coast refineries, which are well suited to handling the heavier crudes, such as diluted bitumen. As you correctly point out, though, it may well be that oil sand-derived products are exported. While the US may not like high fuel prices, presumably neither do other countries. Given that the US has benefited from importing energy from around the world for some considerable time it may seem rather unfair that, once production booms domestically driving prices down, the rest of the world does not benefit from trade. Compared with, say, the rest of the OECD the US does not pay high prices for fuel.

The question of why the US is a net exporter of fuel is slightly disingenuous. The country has substantial refining and midstream capacity so it makes sense to import crude and process it domestically, there is no need to import fuel.