National Wildlife Federation, 2013.

The report highlights storm “snapshots” of seasons with heavy rain — the type expected to be more frequent with climate change — and that season’s levels of farm runoff, and subsequent toxic algae blooms.

Why is it toxic if it’s algae? Why does excess farm runoff make a difference?

There is both good and bad algae.

Algae, particularly green algae, play an essential role in forming the base of the aquatic food web. These organisms are one of the most basic forms of life, requiring only light, warm temperatures, carbon dioxide, and nutrients to grow.

Wake from a small boat in July 2011. Credit: NOAA/NCCOS

Climate Change and Heavy Rain

Wet springs, followed by dry summers are the perfect recipe for toxic algal blooms.

Rainfall and its contribution to harmful algal blooms.

Additionally, the seasons are changing. Warm conditions in the late winter or early spring can cause rain on snow events, expanding the time period of runoff potential. Although we identify a few storm snapshots in this report, the wettest spring on record for Ohio produced a memorably massive harmful algal bloom in 2011.  This is an alarming snapshot of disaster to Lake Erie if record-breaking rains and excess nutrient loads continue.

Scientists recently ran climate scenario models that show larger rain events of rainfall amounts of about 1.2 inches, have the potential to be twice as frequent over western Lake Erie basin.

Impacts on Wildlife

Credit: Ron Nichols.

Lake Erie 2010. Credit: Lake Improvement Association\Flick Creative Commons.

But this is Lake Erie, and I don’t live there

Lake Erie is a surrogate example of toxic events happening in other parts of our nation’s waters, including – the Mississippi River, Gulf of Mexico, and Chesapeake Bay. Keeping these waters clean of toxic runoff is highly important to our own health, and the health of wildlife.

Solutions

• Implement farm policy that incentives and assists farmers to apply fertilizer at the right time and the right rate. For example, applications on frozen ground or before a heavy rain will likely wash right off the land and into the waterways. Farmers can prevent fertilizer and money lost by considering any heavy rain in the forecast.
• Support wetlands restoration. Wetlands help filter excess runoff.
• Protect our communities from flooding events expected due to climate change.
• Reduce the chances of record-breaking rain by reducing global warming greenhouse gas emissions through transitioning to a clean energy economy.

Learn More and download Taken By Storm here!

Since 1958 days with heavy precipitation have increased over the region by 31 percent. Climate models predict this trend to continue in the Great Lakes, with wild swings between heavy rain events and intensely dry conditions.

As the climate changes we can expect more river events like these:

Grand Rapids, Michigan

Grand Raggidy Rink Floods, April 2013. Credit: Tim Bileth

Grand River Flooding April 20, 2013. Credit: Rachel Kramer\Flickr

Mayor George Heartwell declared a state of emergency as more flooding is expected. The water is predicted to crest at 22 feet.

Even the Grand Raggidy Roller Girls are going to have to find a temporary place to bout, or will need to put on flippers instead of skates. Their facility is now underwater.

East Lansing, Michigan

The Michigan State University Fight Song begins like this:

On the banks of the Red Cedar,
There’s a school that’s known to all; …

Right now, the banks of the Red Cedar and parts of Michigan State campus are underwater. The river crested at 7.9 feet Monday morning, above the 7-foot flood stage. Relating even more to the Fight Song – it is the athletic fields left waterlogged.

Chicago, Illinois

The Des Plaines River was twice its flood stage on Sunday.  According to readings by the National Weather Service the river crested at 9.98 feet. The Des Plaines River is amongst these other rising rivers: Fox River, Rock River, DuPage River, the north branch of the Chicago River, and Salt Creek.

Jonathon Monken, director of the Illinois Emergency Management Agency, said

Based on the forecasting right now, we expect to meet and exceed flood levels—historic flood levels … So record flood stages are absolutely possible.

Flooding also required closure of several local forest preserves to the public. The Brookfield Zoo closed its gates for only the third time in its history.

Flooding in Chicago. Credit: Jerry Pos\Flickr

Toledo, Ohio

Northwestern Ohio is experiencing a very wet April. Over the past weekend more than 2″ of rain fell in many parts of far northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan in a 48 hour period. The Maumee River is about a foot above flood stage at Defiance, and it is nearing its crest.

Spring Flood Risk Forecast

NOAA released a springtime flood risk map for the Great Lakes and the United States.

U.S. Spring Flood Risk, 2013. Credit: NOAA

Want to know more about the impact heavy rain and flooding has on Great Lakes wildlife and what to do about it?

Learn more in this detailed report: Taken by Storm!

Since ice records began in 1973, Great Lakes ice cover has declined by an average of 30 percent. Records also show that the lakes are icing over later in the winter yet still melting around the same time in the spring.

Great Lakes Ice Cover 1970-2009. Source USGCRP 2009.

This year is better, but still below normal average. Satellites help us get a better image of how the Great Lakes look from above. These images use composite of data taken from NOAA satellites orbiting the earth’s poles and radar scans of the lakes by the National Ice Center. Here’s what ice cover looked like a month ago versus today. Darker colors like greys and blacks indicate higher ice concentration:

Great Lakes Ice Cover and Water Temperatures Comparison of January and February 2013. Graphic from NOAA Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA).

Great Lakes Ice Cover and Water Temperatures Comparing February 2010 and February 2013. Graphic by NOAA Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA).

Impact on Wildlife

Wildlife in a Warming World, the latest report by the National Wildlife Federation tells the story of what’s happening to wildlife throughout the U.S. with some specific impacts for the Great Lakes Region.

• Warming in Lake Superior helps the invasive sea lamprey thrive, harming native fish.
• Moose populations in Minnesota have dropped from 4,000 to ~100 since the mid-1980s.
• Many fish species eggs depend on ice cover for protection from dangerous winds or waves. Also, ice cover helps to ward off any bacterial growth that may affect the survival of the fish. Ice fishing – part of a multi-billion dollar fishing industry — is also affected as the ice is a no longer reliable platform to partake in the activity.
• Wetland habitat for many wildlife species is also affected as it depends on stable ice for protection from erosion. Our wetlands in the Great Lakes are vital to bird, turtle, snakes, and other amphibian habitat, protecting the lakes from sediment pollution and cleaning our drinking water.

You can learn more by listening to my radio interview Warming Lake Superior Stresses Wildlife, Observers Say on CBC News Radio.

How does ice cover look from our perspective?

Click here to view the embedded video.

A neat time lapse video tells the story of this year’s ice cover on Lake Erie. From our shoreline perspective, it looks icy. That is why satellite data and images are increasingly important to tell the bird’s-eye view of the story so we can act before it’s too late.

Solutions

Ice Caves in Grand Haven along Lake Michigan. Photo by National Park Service.

• Federal, state, and tribal governments have developed a comprehensive plan for helping the nation’s fish, wildlife, and plants adapt to climate change.  The Administration needs to release and implement this strategy.
•  Wildlife and park managers, with the support of the public, need to understand the vulnerability of their resources to climate change and develop forward-looking approaches to manage these changes.
• Management plans for lands and waters need to provide the space needed for wildlife species to shift across the landscape in response to climatic changes.

Second: A transition to cleaner, more secure sources of energy like offshore wind, solar power and next-generation biofuels while avoiding dirty energy choices like coal and tar sands oil will put us on the path to reverse this very alarming trend. We need ice on the Great Lakes, for future generations, for ourselves, for wildlife.

My colleagues Doug Inkley, Celia Haven and I had the opportunity to share some climate-smart restoration success stories (both on land and in water), stories that prove that climate-smart restoration can be achieved in a timely, cost-effective and beneficial manner.

What is climate-smart restoration?

Great Lakes Climate-Smart Restoration Projects 2012.

Benefits of climate-smart restoration include enhancing the value of restoration investments, increasing project durability over the long term, and protecting the overall health of the Great Lakes from increasing air temperatures, droughts and floods, and other impacts of climate change.

NWF, along with partners EcoAdapt and with the support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, created a “how-to” guide for integrating climate change into large restoration projects called Restoring the Great Lakes Coastal Future. The process outlined in this guidance is currently being implemented in seven projects throughout the Great Lakes basin.

At Great Lakes Week we highlighted two of these projects, Lower Black River Habitat Restoration and Habitat Restoration in the Maumee Area of Concern. Both projects are located in the state of Ohio on Lake Erie’s shorelines.

Lower Black River Restoration: Fish, Fish Fish!

Slag piles along the Black River. Photo by Melinda Koslow, 2012.

This project has many partners—federal, private and non-profit—providing jobs for local residents.

What could climate change possibly have to do with this project? Doug Inkley, Senior Scientist with NWF says:

The area is already experiencing heavier rainfall and more severe drought affecting water levels and stream flows. Our current fish habitat restoration approaches along the river shoreline do not account for large changes, but with a few low-cost modifications, we can increase the chances that the fish populations will endure. Addressing climate change in restoration work can feel overwhelming, but it doesn’t have to be.

This year, low water levels caused planners to heed the call of adjusting what are called fish shelves, protected places for fish to spawn, for different water level scenarios in the future. Climate-smart restoration success in this project has meant designing fish shelves at different grades to provide refuge for fish when the water levels rise or fall.

Restoration of habitat along the Black River takes hold while slag piles are removed. Photo by Melinda Koslow, 2012.

Melinda shows “stand-ins” for President Obama and Governor Romney during an event on the Black River. Photo by David Gershman.

To learn more about this project read here.

Habitat in Maumee Bay: Trees, Trees, Trees!

I also had the opportunity to discuss successes of climate-smart restoration in the Maumee Bay Area of Concern. This project is restoring almost 600 acres of wetland, forest, rivers and sedge meadow for one of the largest migratory landbird habitats in the country.

As restoration practitioners pick tree species, we need to consider the warming air temperatures that change the ranges within which trees can survive. NWF and partners are assessing the vulnerability trees have to warming air temperatures and changing water levels in order to pick a mix of species best suited to survive 20, 50, 100 years down the road.

Restoration site, soon to be re-forested. Photo by Melinda Koslow, 2011.

To learn more about this project read here.

Thank you to the Healing Our Waters – Great Lakes Coalition for providing a venue to tell our stories. We will have more to tell as these projects progress!

As we continue to restore the Great Lakes and other important habitats around the country, we can help wildlife survive the changing climate through climate-smart restoration efforts. In the meantime, we must also continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to fight climate change and reduce future impacts to wildlife.

A Black Billed Magpie during an early morning walk in Aspen, Colorado. Photo by Melinda Koslow, 2012.

This year the Forum tackled the idea of “Living With the New Normal,” a response to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s actual air temperature measurements that show the U.S. yearly normal temperatures are now 0.5 degrees F higher in 1981 to 2010 than they were from 1971 – 2000.

In parts of the Great Lakes region average air temperature increase is closer to 1 degree F.

Using standards established by the World Meteorological Organization, the 30-year normals are used to compare current climate conditions with recent history. Local weathercasters traditionally use normals for comparisons with the day’s weather conditions.

What does this mean for our planet? I tackle these questions through the framework of the three main points of discussion at the Forum.

How is the planet responding to this new normal?

I’ll bring in a Great Lakes example for this one. The most obvious is probably the recent flash flooding in Duluth, Minnesota. Over two days, more than seven inches (some reports are closer to 9 or 10 inches) of rain fell, breaking rainfall records and causing a raging river through the city.

Precipitation totals for Duluth area June 19-20, 2012. Photo from NOAA, 2012.

Two-thirds of the zoo was under water, said Holly Henry Marketing Director of the Lake Superior Zoo.

The flooding hit wallets also. Early estimates from the state of Minnesota show at least $100 million in damage.

Storm runoff from June flood in Duluth, Minnesota. Photo by NOAA, 2012.

According to the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the Midwest has already experienced a 37% increase in very heavy precipitation since 1958.

The elements are not matching up. While there’s a problem of too much water in Minnesota, Colorado has a problem of too much fire. Record temperatures in the 100 degrees F and dry conditions have made it very difficult for brave firefighters to do their jobs.

NWF’s own Rocky Mountain Regional Center staff tell more detailed personal accounts of the fires here.

Although we have to be careful to attribute short-term events to climate change, what we do know is that these types of extremes and record-breaking events help us to understand the growing risk that the warming atmosphere induces.

Climate is what you affect, weather is what gets you. – Myles Allen

Read more about the effects of climate change on extreme weather patterns in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s report Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands or in climatologist Heidi Cullen’s book The Weather of the Future.

How are we responding to this new normal?

See no evil, hear no evil, say no evil. Photo by Melinda Koslow, 2012.

Flickr/U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Midwest Region, 2010.

This work requires lots of relationships across state, tribal and federal lines and across all sectors of the economy to help wildlife survive these changes. NWF is a leader in practicing climate-smart conservation in all approaches to saving wildlife – ecological restoration (especially in the Great Lakes), planning, urban habitats, understanding how and why we are vulnerable and more.

It can be done.

These actions not only save wildlife, but also help our human habitats deal with a new normal. For example, every wetland we restore helps reduce the impact of flooding and water quality pollution to our cities.

How adapting does not mean accepting.

Flickr/Natalie Lucier, 2009.

Conservationist E.O. Wilson and I. Photo by Melinda Koslow, 2012.

Yet, I still think about those people who emulate the three “wise” monkeys. When will they also respond?

To paraphrase Harvard biologist and famous conservationist, E.O. Wilson, a human response to a message they don’t want to hear is often like this, “First the ridicule, then the outrage, followed by claims of ‘it’s what we’ve been saying for a while.’”

My opinion? It’s really what we’ve been saying for a while.

Zeus the mini 'polar bear' poodle. Photo of Zeus by Ryan Peterson 2012, photo of polar bear by Susan van Gelder\Flickr.

I am personally inspired by all sorts of wildlife but especially polar bears, and I wonder if it is a coincidence that my new puppy Zeus kind of resembles a polar bear. What do you think?

Viewing Polar Bears with an Amateur Camera and Healthy Respect

Zeus reminds me to tell the story of my first, and likely only, viewing of polar bears in the wild. About a decade ago, I was lucky enough to participate in an impromptu polar bear viewing in Barrow, Alaska.

Barrow, Alaska is the northernmost city in the United States, about 250 miles north of the Arctic Circle. I was there in the summertime as part of a larger project to help the city of Barrow adapt to climate change.

Summer Ice in the Chukchi Sea. Photo by Melinda Koslow 2001.

A local Barrowite asked us if we’d like to partake in a trip to the point of Barrow, where he knew polar bears liked to congregate. Thankfully I had a basic camera and a will to experience. That was all I needed. We jumped at this once-in-a-lifetime chance.

He piled us into a all-terrain vehicle reminding us that it is important to carry a healthy respect for the world’s largest land carnivore. In other words, no getting out of the car, and definitely no feeding or attempts to cuddle the polar bears!

Polar bears on Chukchi Sea Ice near Barrow, Alaska. Photo by Melinda Koslow 2001.

Polar Bears, Point Barrow, Alaska. Photo by Melinda Koslow 2001.

It is important to have a large amount of respect whenever viewing wildlife in the wild.

As Sea Ice Diminishes

As we took in the experience we realized that regardless of their immense power and size – and ability to survive in both water and land in frigid temperatures – that opportunities like this for people to experience them in the wild are vanishing.

The Arctic is warming from global warming and the sea ice, especially in the summer months, is declining in astonishing amounts. This affects the wildlife as well as the people who live in Barrow. As the sea ice declines they are more vulnerable to flooding from large waves and shoreline erosion.

Protect polar bears from global warming by sending a message to the Environmental Protection Agency >>

Return to Barrow

Chukchi Sea. Photo by Melinda Koslow 2005.

I share this adoration and concern with many people throughout the National Wildlife Federation and also with our young friends. Recently our scientist, Doug Inkley, received a letter from a 2nd grader who drew a touching picture of polar bears and dedicated herself as a friend of polar bears.

She and others remind me that there is hope for the polar bears. Every day we work together at NWF and with our partners, affiliates and members to reduce global warming to protect their habitat.

So again Happy National Puppy Day and Wildlife Week! Let’s go home and hug our puppies (or dogs, cats, kitties, mice, fish) or whoever it is that helps remind us of those more wild ones we also admire and work to protect. Zeus says so.

Zeus 13 weeks. Photo by Melinda Koslow 2012.

All of us in the Great Lakes region (and perhaps other regions also) are either enjoying or fretting over what is such a mild winter. Air temperatures remain above average and snowfall amounts are very small. In fact, in Michigan we’ve had more rain than snow this winter. But, what effect has this mild winter had on Great Lakes ice? Let the images speak for themselves.

February Average Great Lakes Ice Cover from 1973 to 2002. Image by NOAA GLERL.

Here is the average ice cover over the entire Great Lakes in February from the years 1973 to 2002. Red, orange and yellow areas indicate thick ice. Pay special attention to Lake Erie.

Great Lakes Ice Cover for February 2012. Darker colors indicate areas of thick ice. Image by NOAA GLERL.

NOW look at Lake Erie. In this image the darker areas indicate the thickest ice. Lake Erie is very light.

Stunning, isn’t it.

Lake Erie as the Canary

Why is the lack of Lake Erie ice important? Lake Erie is the shallowest Great Lake with the least volume of water. That is why it is usually the first lake to develop and retain ice throughout the winter.

Lake Erie does most of its freezing in February so if temperatures continue on this warm path, it may not freeze at all this winter.

Consequences of Thin Ice

We hear a lot about how thin ice in the Arctic harms polar bears and other Arctic wildlife and people, but how does thinning lake ice affect Great Lakes wildlife and people?

Flickr\ Teresa Boardman, 2006

Image by NOAA, February 3, 2012.

Lack of ice cover may also cause problems for fish populations. Many fish species depend on the protection that ice cover provides their eggs from dangerous winds or waves. Also, ice cover helps to ward off any bacterial growth that may affect the survival of the fish. Ice fishing – part of a multi-billion dollar fishing industry is also affected as the ice is a no longer reliable platform to partake in the activity.

Nearshore wetlands and shorelines, habitat for many wildlife species, are also affected as they depend on stable ice for protection from erosion. Our wetlands in the Great Lakes are vital to bird and other amphibian habitat, protecting the lakes from sediment pollution and cleaning our drinking water. We need them to stay on the shore.

Ice cover also provides protection from wintertime evaporation of the lakes. Evaporation rates are the highest in the winter. Sustained lack of ice cover over a few years or decades could contribute to lower lake levels.

When it comes to another very large economic driver in the Great Lakes, shipping, timing is everything. If the temperatures cool and the lakes freeze later into the spring it can cause issues for the industry. Heavy ice conditions in early spring can delay the shipping season and cause navigational problems.

What’s in store for Lake Erie’s ice?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory is creating ice forecasting models as part of their Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System. Currently they are able to forecast circulation, temperature, and wave conditions the lakes. Ice cover and thickness will give us even more information to prepare for conditions as they come. Here is the forecast for the next ten days. Dark colors indicate ice concentration and brighter colors indicate the water temperatures.

Image by NOAA GLERL GLCFS, 2012.

As for the longer-term, we need to work together to reduce temperature-raising greenhouse gas emissions in order to protect wildlife and people. Brenda Archambo, long-term Michigander and ice fisher (her family’s been ice fishing for four generations!) recently made the case to the EPA to cut carbon pollution from cars. Hear her story and watch her testimony here.

This weekend thousands of Tucsonans will gather to do just that while memorializing friends and family lost in the tragic violence on January 8, 2011.

JHadow\Flickr 2012.

Congresswoman Giffords enjoys the outdoors and one of her favorite activities is horseback riding. Photo by Melinda Koslow, 2008.

People can enjoy a new trail in Davidson Canyon, named the Gabe Zimmerman Memorial Trail in honor of the Giffords staffperson and avid hiker who lost his life on that day. What an incredible way to memorialize a wonderful person by giving others access to nature, memories, wildlife sightings, sounds and education of Tucson’s children and grandchildren.

Photo by Sandy Redding\Flickr 2012

Celebrate the spirit of togetherness we felt in the days and months after, and re-commit ourselves to working together to build a stronger community every day.

How do you heal when tragedy occurs from such a senseless act of violence?

My nephew Michael leaving a turtle outside of the hospital with the caption, "Shells are for turtles, not guns." Photo by Melinda Koslow, 2011.

Nature is what it is… unexpected, strong, beautiful, loud, soft, uncompromising, amusing, warm, cold, delicate, bold, challenging, whimsical, purposeful. Like our lives. I find peace in that. There are more reasons to connect us than divide us.

For more information about Beyond Tucson visit their website http://www.beyond-tucson.org or “like” them on Facebook.

Congresswoman Giffords continues to heal “Beyond” expectations and will attend a vigil in Tucson on Sunday January 8.

Whether you are in the midst of a healing process or feeling a need to build community or wanting a good laugh, there is never a better reason to get outside. National Wildlife Federation encourages us to Be Out There.

The NPP carries five instruments set to collect daily data on atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures, humidity soundings, land and ocean biological productivity, and cloud and aerosol properties, along with Earth radiation budget data.

Credit: Ball Aerospace, 2011.

NASA scientists attest that the NPP collects critical climate data to help us unravel some of the mysteries of climate change.

NPP can also see and collect data on other environmental factors such as fires, vegetation, ice patterns, oil spills and sees deeper into storms such as hurricanes.

What’s also unique about the satellite is that it can see all the way to the ground or ocean, regardless of cloud cover, measuring air and surface temperatures through a “straw” of accuracy.

“A significant amount of data that comes up through a 1.1-degree soda straw from the ground,” said Stephen Opel, civil space program manager at Northrop Grumman.

Here is a graphic image of  NPP:

Courtesy of NASA

First image from NPP. Courtesy of NASA, 2011.

Weather information will help provide advance warnings for severe weather such as the deadly tornadoes, hurricanes, heat waves, floods, snowfall and wildfires that the National Weather Service reports have killed 852 Americans, injured more than 6,500, and led to a record $12 billion weather disasters in the USA in 2011.

Over the longer-term, climate data will provide more information to make decisions on how we mitigate (reduce greenhouse gases) and adapt (prepare for impacts) to climate change. It will help cover some data gaps that can sometimes hinder us from taking action.

NASA anticipates all of the products on board will be fully operational within the next year. Follow updates on the NPP’s twitter feed.

Flickr\\Sarah Macmillan

As we, hopefully, behave well to make the “nice” list and bake our delicious cookies to be left with milk, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on some changes Santa and Mrs. Claus are experiencing in the North Pole and around the planet.

Changes that quite likely will require Santa to make some big adjustments.

What’s happening to Santa’s elf workshop in the North Pole?

Graph from NSIDC, 2010.

If this decline continues, and most climate models are in agreement that it will continue and even worsen, Santa and his elves are going to have to find a different place to put up shop or be left to float in the ocean.

Flickr\\François Roche

How will sleigh travel be impacted?

Have you flown lately and noticed a few more bumps than usual? This experience is not in your head.

According to The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global warming causes water temperatures to warm, and the rising heat from those waters can lead to more disturbances in the upper atmosphere. It’s those upper-air disturbances that cause in-flight turbulence. His sleigh rides might be a bit bumpy. Perhaps he might even be forced to delay certain routes around the globe if they are unsafe due to a large storm.

What will Santa wear?

It might get too warm in Santa’s signature red coat with white collar and cuffs, white-cuffed red trousers, and black leather belt and boots. As air temperatures rise, perhaps he might fancy himself in some Bermuda shorts and candy-cane-colored shirtsleeves. Just as long as he doesn’t shave his beard!

What about the reindeer?

Flickr\\Timo Newton-Syms

Protecting reindeer is yet another reason to reduce carbon emissions to prevent even warmer temperatures from pushing them out of their habitat.

What can Santa do to keep his way of life?

Santa likes his way of life in the north pole, wearing his beard and red coat, sailing smoothly with his trusty reindeer. He cares about reducing carbon emissions to lessen and prevent climate change. For example, his sleigh is powered purely by renewable reindeer energy! He also uses wind power to power his toy workshop as wind is abundant in the North Pole. He also re-uses and recycles wood, plastic and other materials from older toys into creating toys for this upcoming season!

To learn more about how we can reduce big changes and protect Santa’s way of life, please see National Wildlife Federation’s Global Warming Solutions. Enjoy this holiday season!