James Hansen. Flickr photo by Milan Ilnyckyj.

Some of the first scientific papers I read in graduate school were those describing the climate models that James Hansen and colleagues developed during the early 1980s. I can recall going to the university library to find the bound volumes of the journals, and then photocopying the articles page by page. At upwards of 40 pages each and 5 cents a page, it would add up for a poor student budget! But, they were worth every penny. These papers were rich in technical details. As someone new to climate science, I was in awe of what Hansen and colleagues had accomplished; fascinated by how much they had learned by developing these remarkable computational tools.

By the time I finished graduate school and packed up my dog-eared copies of these papers, I realized just how much we still didn’t know about climate change. I knew much more about the inner workings of climate models – where they had good observational data to support the calculations and where they had to rely on theory or assumptions in the absence of observations. These uncertainties led many scientists to provide multiple caveats about the model projections when they spoke publicly about their research results.

But, not James Hansen. He had been speaking out about the risks of climate change since the 1980s. Whereas many scientists emphasized all the things we still didn’t know about climate change, Hansen was telling people what we did know, often at significant professional peril. He was speaking to Congress, presidential administrations, and the media about the real and present danger posed by our addiction to fossil fuels. He was approaching his research in such a way to provide cutting-edge scientific results with high relevancy to policy. He was making sure people knew about those results and the implications for our energy and pollution choices.

And, so out of everything I have learned from his impressive body of work, the most important lesson I have taken from Hansen’s career is this: We know quite a lot about climate change and have a crucial responsibility to help people understand the risks we face. Climate models are imperfect, but they still are incredibly important tools that provide essential information to guide societal decisions. We’ll never be able to observe the earth system in its entirety or perfectly predict the future, but we have ample knowledge of climate change to inform action.

Hansen has combined impeccable scientific credibility with a strong voice advocating for climate action in a way that few other scientists have managed. In recent years, he has increasingly taken a more personal approach to science communication, often mentioning his grandchildren as a strong motivation. It is this combination of science, advocacy, and humanity that makes Hansen’s climate communication efforts so compelling. I look forward to seeing how he continues to advance climate science communication—and what further lessons he has for all of us!—in this next stage of his career.

NWF’s recent report Wildlife in a Warming World: Confronting the Climate Crisis details how wildlife and wild places across the nation are already dealing with climate change. As we celebrate the many wonderful ways trees touch our lives and benefit wildlife during this year’s National Wildlife Week, we also take a moment to step back and consider what climate change means for trees today and into the future.

Forests Facing New Climate Challenges

The trees that define the landscape in many parts of the United States are expected to undergo significant range shifts in the decades to come. As temperatures increase and patterns of rain/snow change, many tree species will have to find ways to adjust. And, this means that the birds, mammals, and other wildlife that depend on these forests will also have to adjust, not to mention the livelihoods and communities that are closely tied to the many services provided by the forests.

Here are a few examples of what climate change means for our forests:

• In the Rockies, forests are facing major changes as a result of droughts, wildfires, and insect outbreaks, all fueled by the warming conditions. More than 6 million acres of pine forest in Colorado and Wyoming alone have been devastated by mountain pine beetle outbreaks, drastically affecting the heart of the region’s tourism industry. The loss of white-bark pine has wildlife managers worried about the impacts on wildlife—including grizzly bears—that depend on pine nuts as an important food source.
• As the Southwest faces more intense and frequent megadroughts, chances are that we won’t be able to have forests in many of the places they are currently found. A recent study based on tree-ring analysis found that these megadroughts are now happening about 14 percent of the time, up from about 5 percent during the past 1000 years. If we keep polluting at the same rate, the Southwest could be in megadrought conditions 80 percent of the time during the second half of this century.
• In Alaska, forests are already beginning to encroach on the tundra. Wildlife species that are specifically adapted to tundra conditions are especially at risk. For example the arctic fox is facing new competition from forest-adapted red foxes.
• Climate change is projected to make parts of the Northwest much less suitable for many of the conifers for which the region is famous. In Washington State, for example, Douglas fir could be lost from over 32 percent of its current range.
• In the Northeast, spruce-fir forests are expected to recede up mountain slopes as temperatures become too warm for their survival, to be replaced by oak-dominated forests. Eastern hemlock is expected to be lost across most of its U.S. range as warmer winter temperatures allow the destructive hemlock woody aldegid to survive and spread. Many wildlife species rely upon the year-round cover of these evergreen species.

Conservation Approaches Branching Out, Too

Forest and wildlife managers are realizing that our approaches to conservation need to match the new challenges confronting our forests. When making plans for how and where we protect forests, we now need to think about possible shifts in forest ranges, changes in wildfire and pest outbreaks, and the impacts of more heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall events.

National Wildlife Federation is helping lead efforts to make conservation efforts climate-smart. For example, in a project to restore Ohio’s Black River, NWF made recommendations about which tree species to plant based on climate model projections of how tree ranges will shift. Our efforts with rural landowners in Alabama have helped them understand the value of longleaf pine as a native species that is more resilient to climate extremes than other pine species.

At the same time, conservationists, city planners, and water managers are looking to trees and forests as a way to increase the resiliency of our communities to climate change. Trees are critical infrastructure for cities and towns, and tree plantings, like those NWF is urging for National Wildlife Week, can help create more shade and reduce the need for air conditioning during heat waves. Healthy forests also help soak up heavy rainfall, reducing the likelihood of downstream floods while providing natural filtration for drinking water.

Don’t Forget Carbon Storage

When it comes to climate change, perhaps the most compelling reason to protect our forests and urban canopies is the crucial role trees play in removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it for a long time. In fact, the regrowth of trees in the Northeast currently offsets about 16 percent of the nation’s carbon pollution from burning coal, oil, and gas.

Trees are a bigger part of the carbon pollution equation than many people realize.  That’s why NWF is working hard to fight deforestation in the Amazon and support forestry programs here at home. And, that’s why we hope that you’ll take a moment to plant a tree (or even better, a LOT of trees!) this year.

What’s in the report?

Today, I had a chance to see the draft at a public meeting of the federal advisory committee overseeing the report development. Some initial, big-picture reactions:

• The report clearly and strongly reaffirms the findings of past climate assessments: we are seeing climate change now and the cause is primarily the burning of fossil fuels.  It notes that these conclusions are buttressed by new evidence and repeated scrutiny of existing data.
• The report includes detailed and definitive information about climate impacts, some of which are increasing. It points out that all Americans are experiencing climate change, an important recognition that this is a problem we are facing here and now.
• The projections of possible future climate change make it clear that our choices about carbon emissions will have a significant effect on the magnitude of impacts. In particular, in order to reduce emissions to the levels that the global community has agreed is necessary to avoid most serious impacts, we need to stabilize and reduce global emissions within a few years. For the US to accomplish this, additional policies will be needed.  Existing efforts are not even close to what is needed.
• Responses to climate change—both slowing emissions of carbon pollution (what climate scientists call “mitigation”) and efforts to respond to and prepare for unavoidable climate impacts (“climate adaptation”)—are examined in detail for the first time in this third assessment report. This is an important step in the right direction, recognizing that the National Climate Assessment needs to more directly address the questions of decision makers. It states that current actions are not sufficient to meet the challenges facing us today.

In short, this draft report reinforces the certainty within the scientific community that the climate is changing and makes a compelling case that significant and urgent action is needed to address the root causes.

How can you get involved?

Wildlife across the country will be impacted by climate change, according to a new draft National Climate Assessment. Photo by William Wiley.

• San Diego, CA – January 18, 2013. More information here.
• Syracuse, NY – January 23, 2013. More information here.
• Lincoln, NE – February 4, 2013. More information here.
• Anchorage, AK – February 5, 2013. As a part of Alaska Forum on the Environment, register here.
• Ann Arbor, MI – February 12, 2013. More information here.
• Tampa, FL – February 19, 2013. More information here.
• Portland, OR – March 12, 2013. More information here.

And, last but not least, let President Obama and the Environmental Protection Agency know that you support efforts to curb carbon pollution from power plants. Send a message today voicing your concern that the latest science demands that we take action.

Satellite image of Hurricane Sandy off the shores of Florida and an approaching cold front across the Midwest. (NASA GOES, 10-25-2012)

Meteorologists did not pick the name Frankenstorm only because of the Halloween timing. The name also reflects the highly unusual nature of this storm. Here’s what the meteorologists are forecasting right now:

• Sustained winds of at least 50-60 mph for a large swath of the coast for at least 24 hours, with windy conditions for as long as a week.
• Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches or more for a large region. Many areas will experience rainfall amounts maybe only seen once a century.
• Storm surge of 3-6 feet resulting from days of winds blowing sea water toward the coast combined with full moon conditions.
• Collision with an eastward moving cold front, setting up conditions even worse than the famous “Perfect Storm” of 1991.
• Mountainous areas are likely to get snow.
• Sandy is already huge – extending more than 500 miles across – and expected to grow before making landfall.

If the forecasts are correct, chances are very good that this is a storm that no Americans alive today have ever witnessed. In other words, if you live along the coastal areas where landfall is expected and think you know what to expect, think again.

The Frightening Forecast

Folks, this storm is exactly the sort of thing climate scientists have been worried about for years. Global warming is putting hurricanes on steroids and we’re beginning to see the effects:

• Global warming puts more energy into storms. This means stronger winds and larger storms. And this means storms that sustain their powerful winds longer as they make their way out of the tropics.
• A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, meaning that storms bring more rainfall.
• Higher sea levels – resulting from thermal expansion, melting glaciers and ice caps – lead to higher storm surge and more flooding damage. Sea levels along the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are rising up to four times faster than the global average.
• From power outages to oil rig disruptions, extreme weather threatens America’s energy infrastructure.

With the record-setting temperatures we’ve had in 2012, getting a big hurricane comes as no surprise. Globally and for the United States, 2012 is on track to be the hottest year on record. Sea surface temperatures along the hurricane’s forecasted tract are about 5°F above average, providing continued energy to this storm as it moves northward.

Unusual and Extreme Are Becoming the New ‘Normal’

Every time another one of these disasters begin unfolding, I think that maybe this will be the one that makes people realize that global warming is something we need to address now. How many lives must be lost and billions of dollars of losses incurred before we start taking real action? How many people must have their homes threatened by wildfires, their livelihoods decimated by drought, or their families in the crosshairs of a Frankenstorm before we realize that global warming is not a hoax or a joke? But so far, mainstream media coverage has completely ignored Sandy’s connection to climate change.

I live in Reston, VA – right in Sandy’s current forecast path. This weekend, I’ll be getting my kids ready for Halloween: making sure that all the parts of their costumes are in order, carving pumpkins, and loading up on candy. But I’ll also be preparing for another kind of fright, by stocking up on water, food and batteries, while stowing our outdoor furniture and other things that could easily blow away.

The timing of this storm also happens to coincide with a chance that we as Americans can make our voices heard. We need to let political candidates know – from the Presidential race to local elections – that our nation needs to have a plan to protect our communities by addressing the root cause of climate change, as well as the effects. If we don’t take steps to curb carbon pollution, these sorts of freak storms will be a more and more frequent part of our reality.

Take Action

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were never asked about climate change or extreme weather at the presidential debates. Take a moment to urge Obama and Romney to tell us their plans to address climate change now.

Frankly, the end of August and beginning of September is just a hard time to be a climate scientist. It’s when we take stock of how our nation and other areas in the Northern Hemisphere fared during the summer heat, which our carbon pollution is exacerbating. More than any other time of year, this is when the new climate realities hit home for me. 2012 is no different.

Climate Realities for 2012

As the hurricane season kicks into high gear, we’re also seeing reports of Arctic sea ice melt and analyses of climate conditions during the past few months. Together these trends paint a picture of an increasingly disrupted climate system:

• The Arctic sea ice reaches its annual minimum during the first week or two of September, so each year we wait to see whether another record low will occur.  We already know that 2012 has set a record low because sea ice fell below the previous record set in 2007 earlier this week.  Now the waiting game is to see just how much lower it will go.
• Many of the most devastating hurricanes in US history have made landfall this time of year, when tropical Atlantic waters are plenty warm (see chart). This week, we all watched Hurricane Isaac slowly crash into the Gulf Coast, bringing back memories of Hurricane Katrina’s path just seven years ago. As climate change ups the intensity of storms in the decades to come, we should anticipate the potential for even larger disasters.
• In a couple weeks, NOAA will issue an analysis of climate conditions during the summer, and we’ll get another reminder of just how hot it was compared to the long-term record. We already know that the first two months of the summer were scorchers, with July being the hottest single month ever recorded for the lower 48.
• More detailed analyses of summer weather and climate disasters will also be released during the next couple months. We’ve already begun to hear reports about just how much of the corn, soy, and other crops were lost to the drought that affected more than 60% of the country.

With the barrage of climate impacts we’ve experienced in recent summers, one can’t help but start to think that climate change might be changing the character of summers to come. A new report from the National Wildlife Federation describes several ways that climate change is “ruining” summer—from more heat waves and wildfires to fewer cherries.

Signs of Hope

Even as we hear of more climate impacts, there are signs of steps underway to curb the carbon pollution that’s causing climate change. Just this week, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency finalized new fuel efficiency and carbon standards that will double the fuel economy of America’s cars, SUVs and pickups to an average of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. When we roll up both the rules enacted in 2010 (the ones getting us from here to 2016) and the ones finalized today (2017-2025) they cut nearly 600 million metric tons  in 2030 or almost 10% of total US carbon pollution from all sources today. What’s more these new standards are proof that government and industry can act decisively to cut carbon pollution – and do it while boosting jobs and the economy at the same time.

Or consider the recent poll results that showed that 55% of registered voters will consider candidates’ views on global warming when casting their votes, with large majorities supporting action to curb emissions. Coupled with other polling showing that most Americans are connecting recent weather extremes with climate change, it seems that people are starting to connect the dots between what’s happening on the ground and what they can do with their vote.

Glass Half Full

I often get asked if it’s depressing to work on climate change.  I don’t think there’s any way to avoid being profoundly affected by climate-fueled disasters that we are already seeing today and projections of worst case scenarios for the future. Indeed, a recent NWF report raises alarm bells about potential psychological distress associated with climate change.

But, deep down, I believe that we can get ourselves on the right course and avoid the worst of the potential impacts. I see bright examples of innovation and progress every day, from new policies to my conversations with people across the nation who are beginning to recognize the way climate change is affecting them and their communities.

A new report that brings together recent research on how climate change is affecting plants, animals, and habitats in the United States confirms what we already suspected: the changes are happening faster than previously thought, with more compelling evidence of impacts piling up.

The new report Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services was produced as a technical input into the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA).  My NWF colleague Bruce Stein and I served on the steering committee and helped author several chapters of the report.

More Evidence of How Climate Change Is Affecting Nature

The report focuses on new research contributions from the last 5 or so years, and there have been many. Among the major findings of the report:

• Climate change is causing many species to shift their ranges and distributions faster than previously thought.  Terrestrial species are moving up in elevation 2 to 3 times faster than initial estimates;
• There is increased evidence of species population declines and localized extinctions that can be directly attributed to climate change.  Species living at high altitudes and latitudes are especially vulnerable to climate change;
• Changes in precipitation and extreme weather events can increase transport of nutrients and pollutants downstream.  Drinking water quality is very likely to be strained as higher rainfall and river discharge lead to more nitrogen in waters and greater risk of waterborne disease outbreak;
• Ecosystem services provided by coastal habitats are especially vulnerable to sea level rise and more severe storms. The Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts are the most vulnerable to the loss of coastal protection services provided by wetlands and coral reefs.  Coastal communities on the Pacific coast are also vulnerable;
• Changes in winter can have big and surprising effects on ecosystems and their services, including impacting agricultural and forest production.

Climate Change Adaptation Gaining More Prominence

This report devotes a chapter to climate change adaptation, an area where there has also been significant progress made in the last five years. NWF’s contributions to advancing the conceptual framework and practice of adaptation are particularly featured.

With ecosystems facing the effects of climate change more rapidly than previously anticipated, the key findings of the adaptation chapter stress that our expectations of what can be accomplished with adaptation efforts and current conservation strategies will also need to be revisited:

• Adaptation can range from efforts to retain status quo conditions to actively managing system transitions; however, even the most aggressive adaptation strategies may be unable to prevent irreversible losses of biodiversity or serious degradation of ecosystems and their services.
• Static protected areas will not be sufficient to conserve biodiversity in a changing climate, requiring an emphasis on landscape-scale conservation, connectivity among protected habitats, and sustaining ecological functioning of working lands and waters.

Thus, the ongoing efforts of federal and state agencies to plan for and integrate climate change research into resource management and actions—many of which are cataloged in the report—are essential for safeguarding the future of wildlife. But, we will also need aggressive action to curb carbon pollution to avoid reaching the limits of what adaptation strategies can accomplish.

Next Stop: Public Review of Draft NCA Report

This technical input is already being considered by the authors of the next National Climate Assessment report, which will include a chapter on ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. In addition, the chapters focused on individual regions of the nation will address the impacts on their ecosystems.

We will get our first look at the draft report this coming December when it will be released for a 3-month public comment period. The draft will undergo expert peer review, and the NCA is also seeking broad stakeholder review. They define stakeholders as “individuals and organizations whose activities, decisions, and policies are sensitive to or affected by climate.” In other words, everybody is a stakeholder.   So, mark your calendars to set aside some time to provide your comments to the NCA when the draft is available this winter.

Fireworks, Washington, DC, July 4, 2007. Credit: Flickr (Camera Slayer)

As we marvel about these events, it’s important to also point out that this sort of weather on steroids is exactly what we expect from climate change. Some of the leading news outlets are starting to do just that (see the Washington Post for example), a welcome development from even just a couple weeks ago.

Now, we all need to step up make those same connections for our family and friends. When the talk at our picnics turns to weather this Fourth of July, let’s all make a conscious effort to turn the talk to climate change. Here are some tips for how to approach that conversation:

Connect the dots

One challenge in having these sorts of conversations is that we have to make the links between several different parts of the story: carbon pollution, climate change, extreme weather, communities, nature, and the bottom line. It’s not always possible to tell the full story in the time it takes to finish your macaroni salad!  So focus on making some of the key connections, such as:

• Stick to science basics. Even if folks suspect that many weather and climate extremes of late are outside the norm, they might not understand what’s causing the changes. Yet, the logic behind why a warmer planet leads to more weather extremes is pretty straightforward.  Check out our cheat sheet below for some quick explanations.
• Remind folks about other recent extremes. Turns out that people are pretty bad at remembering past weather events and putting current ones in context. It’s a good idea to jog people’s memories about extreme events that happened in previous seasons or years, connecting the current spate of events with the longer-term patterns. Do you remember the major flooding in the Northeast US from back-to-back storms at the end of last summer? Or what about the record-setting heat, drought, and wildfires across Texas?
• Make it about the lives impacted – both people and wildlife. Climate change is having real impacts on people and wildlife today, and the costs are already adding up. The wildfires in Colorado have already cost about $40 million to fight, not to mention the much larger losses to property yet to be tallied. The derecho storm that swept across the nation claimed at least 22 lives. The wildfires in New Mexico are putting threatened Gila Trout at risk, forcing wildlife managers to manually trap and move them to unaffected rivers.

I’m actually running out of adjectives to convey how dramatic these events are one after another. The danger is that, at some point, we can become numb to all of these losses. A major challenge in talking to our friends and family is to make the case that climate change is a real and rightfully scary prospect, and then to provide hope by turning to what we as Americans can do to lead the world in solving it.

Global Problems, American Leadership

On the Fourth, many of us take a moment to reflect on what it means to be an American, what are the values that define us as a nation. For me, America is about fighting for fairness and equity, being bold and innovative, pushing to explore new frontiers, and being self-reliant, practical and efficient. It is about being a champion of the little guy and defending against tyranny, using science and technology to achieve success and material comfort, and not least a love and appreciation for the natural beauty of our country.

Tackling climate change means embracing these very same values. It means harnessing American innovation to push the frontiers of new, clean energy development. It means communities looking for ways to be more resilient in the face of more extremes and in how they get their energy. It means recognizing that our actions today have irreversible consequences for our children and grandchildren, and it is not fair to them for us to continue blithely burning fossil fuels. And, it means taking a stand to protect our nation’s land, water, and air from more aggressive exploitation of dirty fuels, especially when clean alternatives are at our doorstep!

These connections between our deeply held American values and how we confront climate change are perhaps the most important ones to make. After all, tapping into these values is what will motivate each of us and our political leaders to make the changes necessary to put our country on a pathway to climate stabilization.

Connecting to a Hopeful Vision for the Future

Tomorrow night, as I sit with my kids watching the fireworks dot the night sky, I will be hopeful that they will grow up in the America that I believe in. A place where we don’t shy away from the world’s greatest problems, but rather confront those challenges with ingenuity and optimism.

If you have the same vision, then join me in sharing it with friends and family. And let the Environmental Protection Agency know that you support strong limits on carbon pollution.

Whitewater-Baldy Fire, New Mexico on June 6, 2012. Credit: Kari Greer, USFS Gila National Forest.

There’s compelling evidence that talking about western wildfires without mentioning climate change is like talking about lung cancer without mentioning cigarettes. I want to walk you through what’s happening out west right now, what the latest science tells us about why it’s happening, how it’s affecting people and wildlife in the region, and what we can do about it.

The Latest Major Fires

The consequences of carbon pollution are immediately apparent to residents of Colorado this week. More than 52,000 acres of forest have burned since lightning started the High Park Fire on June 9. Smoke has been wafting over Fort Collins, as stands of pines have been going up in dramatic blazes. The fire is already the second largest in the state’s history, exceeded only by the 2002 Hayman Fire. Of course, the High Park Fire is only 15% contained, so it may well take the leader spot in the days to come.

In the meantime, New Mexico is in the midst of fighting the largest wildfire in its history. The Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire has already burned nearly 300,000 acres, mostly in the Gila National Forest. This fire comes on the heels of the Las Conchas Fire last summer, which ranked as the largest New Mexico wildfire at the time. What’s worse, heavy rainstorms after the fire was extinguished led to major flooding and erosion. Sediment and ash were washed downstream into the Rio Grande, affecting drinking water for Albuquerque, the largest city in New Mexico.

Climate change is literally fueling these and other major fires in western states. In fact, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas have all had fires since last year that ranked as one of the two largest in their histories (see table). The frequency and extent of fires in recent decades is unlikely to happen under natural conditions. With one catastrophic fire after another, it is clear that something quite different is happening to our forests.

Climate Trends and Forest Fires

Climate scientists have identified several ways that a warming planet will increase forest fire risk. Not surprisingly, all of these factors are fanning the fires we’ve been seeing recently in the western United States.

• Longer fire seasons: Western forests typically become combustible within a month of the snowpack melting, which is happening 1 to 4 weeks earlier than it did 50 years ago. This year, an unusually warm and dry winter resulted in one of the smallest snowpacks in Colorado history. As of June 1, the snowpack was only 2% of its normal extent.
• Drier conditions: Climate change is expected to bring more frequent and more intense droughts to the Southwest, perhaps shifting the area to a more arid climate. As of the end of May, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas all had areas in the grip of severe and extreme drought.
• More fuel for forest fires: Widespread beetle infestations have left broad swaths of dead and highly combustible trees in their wake. Higher temperatures enhance winter survival of mountain pine beetles and allow for a more rapid lifecycle. Ecologists in Colorado recently confirmed that beetle populations are able to complete two generations during longer, warmer summers, leading to a possible 60-fold increase in the number of beetles.
• Increased frequency of lightning is expected as thunderstorms become more severe. In the western United States lightning strikes could increase by 12 to 30 percent by mid-century. Both the High Park fire in Colorado and the Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire in New Mexico were ignited by lightning.

Communities, Firefighters, Taxpayers & Wildlife Bearing the Costs

Communities can be rocked by wildfires. During the last decade, property losses in the US have averaged $1 billion annually. Take the town of Bastrop, Texas, home to just over 7,000 people who braved the most catastrophic wildfire that state had ever seen last fall. More than 1,600 homes were destroyed and two people lost their lives. Insured property losses for the fire totaled $325 million, and clean up cost another $25 million. That’s on top of the millions spent to put out the fire in the first place.  Dealing with these sorts of disasters also takes an emotional toll on people, as discussed in a recent NWF report on the psychological impacts of climate change.

Firefighters are having to adapt to the new wildfire realities. They are struggling to keep up with these longer fire seasons, which in some places are now effectively year round, leaving little time to regroup and prepare for the next incident. Moreover, they are finding it harder to control fires, in part because fires are less likely to quiet down at night like they used to. Nighttime conditions are hotter and drier, meaning that fires can stay active around the clock.

Taxpayers are footing the bill for fighting these fires. The cost of wildfire suppression—about $3 billion a year—has tripled in the United States since the late 1990’s. The majority of these expenses are borne by the U.S. Forest Service, which now spends around half of its annual budget on fighting fires.

Wildlife is not immune to the impacts of increasing fire frequency and intensity. Many ecosystems have evolved so that episodic fires are part of their natural rhythms, but are struggling to cope with the new fire patterns. These mega-fires are trapping animals that would otherwise be able to flee, causing widespread habitat destruction, and even causing wholesale landscape conversion. 

Cutting Carbon Pollution Can Reduce Future Fire Risks

To prevent wildfires from getting much worse and to limit the risks communities and wildlife, we must reduce carbon pollution. Just this week a new climate study came out making projections that many areas of the world, including the western United States, should expect even more fires if we continue spewing carbon pollution into the atmosphere.

Take Action

Fortunately, we know what steps to take to and have the tools to start taking action now. The Environmental Protection Agency is creating the first limits on carbon pollution emitted from power plants. Please take a moment right now to tell the EPA you support limits on industrial carbon pollution.

Shamu, San Diego, CA. Credit: Patty Mooney

At the end of May, National Wildlife Federation hosted a forum on Harnessing Social Science Expertise to Advance Climate-Conscious Behavior Change. During the two-day event, we brought together leading thinkers from the social sciences with leaders of climate advocacy programs from national NGOs. The group was challenged with identifying creative and concrete ways to infuse behavior change research into efforts that NGOs could realistically implement for reducing carbon pollution.

Indeed, changing individual behaviors—from consumer choices to how we use electrical devices to how we get around—will be essential for decreasing carbon emissions to levels scientists say are necessary to avoid serious impacts. By some estimates, changing behaviors could cut household carbon emissions by 20%. But realizing this potential will require wide-scale change across a number of behaviors.  Thus, we need to use insight from the social sciences to catalyze a long-term process of change.

Sneak Peek at Forum Discussions

In the coming months, we will be synthesizing the forum discussions and sharing them widely. But, we thought we’d share a few snippets now to pique your interest in how social sciences could shape future climate advocacy.  So many fascinating discussions took place over the two days that it’s hard to summarize them here or even pick out a few to highlight!  For me, many of the immediate take-away lessons have to do with how we can do a better job communicating with people about climate change, how we might target our efforts to have the biggest effect, and incorporating insight from the social sciences into a broader vision for achieving major carbon reductions. 

Revamping Climate Communication

For years, I have operated under the principle that if I could just explain climate science clearly enough or in a way that better connected with people, then they would “get it” and change their behavior accordingly. Social science researchers call this assumption the deficit model and have long known that this approach is largely ineffective. Turns out that telling someone information, in other words filling their knowledge deficit, is only one of many factors that influence decision making.  And, in many cases, other factors, such as deeply held cultural and religious values, carry much more weight.

What’s more, providing too much information about a subject can actually cause people to take the opposite action than that intended. That’s where the boomerang effect comes into play. There are many examples of behavior change campaigns that have failed in this manner, perhaps most notably those directed at getting teens to avoid drugs. Some studies have shown that anti-drug ad campaigns made teens more open to drug use, possibly because they conveyed a message that drug use is something that lots of teens are doing. All of which, of course, makes me wonder how our efforts at communicating about climate change might be boomeranging.

It’s not all disheartening… Another point made was the importance of making education fun. Now, this is an idea that NWF already heartily endorses for our wildlife education! (Have you seen all our great kids programs and magazines?) A challenge for the climate advocacy community is to inject some fun into our programs. 

Targeting Catalysts for Long-term Change

The other thing that was clear from the forum discussions was that the challenges and opportunities for behavior change go far beyond more effective communication. If our goal is to achieve a long-term shift away from carbon-intensive behaviors, then we need to be thinking strategically about how we engage people in this process. What sorts of actions are best to propose first? Should we focus on a single action or provide a whole menu of options? How do we take advantage of group dynamics to support these behavior changes?

Social scientists have already studied some of these questions and can help us figure out effective strategies. For example, the foot-in-the-door effect is a well-studied theory that people are more likely to accede to a second, more demanding request after they have already agreed to perform a prior, smaller act related to the same cause. Carefully choosing and sequencing requests so that they build on one another is one way to create what researchers call spillover, the idea that one behavior change will lead to other related behavior change.

Of course, this territory must be carefully navigated so as to avoid the single-action bias, the tendency to feel like you’ve already done enough after making one change. Replacing light bulbs, for example, accomplishes a part of the household energy reductions, but should be part of a larger effort to address energy usage. And yet after installing them, one may feel less compelled to take further conservation steps.  Countering this tendency might require embracing the Shamu principle, which essential boils down to using incremental rewards to build a behavior through a series of intermediate, increasingly proximate behaviors (give Shamu a fish if he comes close, then if you can pet him, then if he comes on command, then he if jumps, etc.).

Tapping into group dynamics and peer influence is another important key to supporting sustained behavior change. Take for example, the Green Living Program designed by David Gershon and colleagues at The Empowerment Institute. Their approach centers on establishing EcoTeams composed of 5-6 households that meet regularly to support their shared journey to more sustainable lifestyles.

A Vision for Long-term Behavior Change

Participants also discussed the potential for creating an intentional interplay between three levers for affecting pollution: (1) policies and laws that regulate major sources of pollution; (2) innovative technologies and products that create new opportunities in the consumer marketplace; and (3) efforts intended to influence individual behaviors. While much environmental advocacy to date has focused on the first two categories, often leading to significant gains, the breadth of the carbon pollution challenge demands a more comprehensive approach. In fact, effective programs to change climate-related behaviors may be vital for building the public support for carbon pollution regulations and the broad consumer demand for better, more efficient products. Creating such a vision for climate advocacy is complicated and daunting, but also quite exciting!

Next steps and how to learn more

Over the next months, we will be synthesizing the findings from our forum discussions and seeking opportunities to share them more broadly. At the same time, we will continue to nurture these discussions, which really only scraped the surface of opportunities for integration and collaboration. Moreover, we will identify opportunities to put the lessons learned into practice for NWF’s program planning. We see this forum as NWF’s initial foray into this area, and the beginning of the exploration of many exciting opportunities.

If you’re interested in learning more or joining the conversation, please feel free to contact us.

Amanda Staudt, NWF Senior Scientist, Climate and Energy Programs
staudta@nwf.org

Kevin Coyle, NWF Vice President, Education and Training
coylek@nwf.org

Green sea turtle on Hawaii's Punalu'u beach. Credit: Flickr (The Shifted Librarian)

Far from the everyday hustle and bustle of my city life, the slow motion dance of these turtles was captivating. My book laid ignored on my beach towel, while I crouched on the rocks and watched their every move.  Other tourists came and went, my husband retreated back to the shade and his book, but I could have stayed there all day.

Perhaps it was because we usually don’t have the chance to be close to larger animals in the wild. Sure, we can see birds, squirrels and butterflies all around us.  But there’s just something extraordinary about communing with a fully grown sea turtle.

Or, perhaps it was the seemingly timeless nature of the turtles. My daily stresses seemed trivial in the presence of these animals. Sea turtles have been navigating our oceans and beaches for 150 million years. The trials and tribulations of humanity are a just a blink of time compared to what the turtles have witnessed.

Sea turtles at risk of extinction

Yet, today, sea turtles have every reason to be concerned about humanity. Turtles are one of many species bearing the brunt of the human footprint on the planet. Of the seven sea turtle species, three are listed as critically endangered (Kemp’s ridley, hawksbill, leatherback), two as endangered (loggerhead and green turtle), and one as vulnerable (olive ridley) on the IUCN’s Red List.  The last species (flatback) lacks sufficient data to make a determination about its vulnerability.

Environmental hazards face the sea turtles at nearly every turn, as a recent NWF report Sea Turtle Homecoming, Class of 2010 outlines. Beach habitat is critical for sea turtle nesting, yet development on coasts and armoring of beachfront property with sea walls have significantly degraded or destroyed many important nesting areas. Meanwhile harmful fishing practices, marine debris, and oil spills have posed threats to the marine environments frequented by turtles. Indeed, during the 6 months following the BP oil spill, more than 600 sea turtles were found dead in the vicinity of the spill. 

To make matters worse, sea turtles now have to contend with climate change. Increasing air and ground temperatures have already affected the incubation of turtle hatchlings. Embryos developing at higher temperatures toward the top of the nest are more likely to become females, while those developing in the cooler lower reaches of the nest are more likely to become males. The ratio of females to males is already getting out of balance in some areas because of warming. At the same time, sea-level rise is eroding the beaches where turtles nest, threatening further habitat loss. 

Climate change is also affecting the marine environments and food sources upon which sea turtles depend. Of particular concern is the potential for increasing sea temperatures and ocean acidification to significantly degrade coral systems, an important feeding area for turtles.

Daily inspiration

Before leaving Hawaii, I purchased a print of two sea turtles made by a local artist.  In Hawaiian and translated in English below, the artist wrote “Righteous is the Turtle. Protect him!” Framed and hung at my bedside, this print is a daily reminder to slow down, see the big picture, and at the same time treasure the little moments. And, this print provides a daily inspiration to keep fighting for turtles and all the other righteous creatures.

For more inspiration, please check out these suggestions about how celebrate Endangered Species Day and to raise awareness about protecting endangered species.