James Hansen. Flickr photo by Milan Ilnyckyj.

Some of the first scientific papers I read in graduate school were those describing the climate models that James Hansen and colleagues developed during the early 1980s. I can recall going to the university library to find the bound volumes of the journals, and then photocopying the articles page by page. At upwards of 40 pages each and 5 cents a page, it would add up for a poor student budget! But, they were worth every penny. These papers were rich in technical details. As someone new to climate science, I was in awe of what Hansen and colleagues had accomplished; fascinated by how much they had learned by developing these remarkable computational tools.

By the time I finished graduate school and packed up my dog-eared copies of these papers, I realized just how much we still didn’t know about climate change. I knew much more about the inner workings of climate models – where they had good observational data to support the calculations and where they had to rely on theory or assumptions in the absence of observations. These uncertainties led many scientists to provide multiple caveats about the model projections when they spoke publicly about their research results.

But, not James Hansen. He had been speaking out about the risks of climate change since the 1980s. Whereas many scientists emphasized all the things we still didn’t know about climate change, Hansen was telling people what we did know, often at significant professional peril. He was speaking to Congress, presidential administrations, and the media about the real and present danger posed by our addiction to fossil fuels. He was approaching his research in such a way to provide cutting-edge scientific results with high relevancy to policy. He was making sure people knew about those results and the implications for our energy and pollution choices.

And, so out of everything I have learned from his impressive body of work, the most important lesson I have taken from Hansen’s career is this: We know quite a lot about climate change and have a crucial responsibility to help people understand the risks we face. Climate models are imperfect, but they still are incredibly important tools that provide essential information to guide societal decisions. We’ll never be able to observe the earth system in its entirety or perfectly predict the future, but we have ample knowledge of climate change to inform action.

Hansen has combined impeccable scientific credibility with a strong voice advocating for climate action in a way that few other scientists have managed. In recent years, he has increasingly taken a more personal approach to science communication, often mentioning his grandchildren as a strong motivation. It is this combination of science, advocacy, and humanity that makes Hansen’s climate communication efforts so compelling. I look forward to seeing how he continues to advance climate science communication—and what further lessons he has for all of us!—in this next stage of his career.

• Human-induced climate change is projected to continue and accelerate significantly if emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase.
• Natural ecosystems are being directly affected by climate change, including changes in biodiversity and location of species. As a result, the capacity of ecosystems to moderate the consequences of disturbances such as droughts, floods and severe storms is being diminished.
• Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and mitigation (to reduce emissions) is increasing, but progress with implementation is limited.

The NCA is a premier collection of climate science that can be used to inform policy decisions, and is especially important because it’s yet another vessel (in addition to recent extreme weather events) carrying home the point that our climate is changing right now, as a result of human behavior. It is one more piece of proof that climate science is not something you can choose to “believe in” and that urgent action at all levels is vital to maintaining some semblance of normal on this planet.

The comment period for the NCA presents us with an opportunity to share with the government our own expertise and experiences—as much as the scientific studies may show us, we often know our own backyards best, and could possibly add a comment about something the NCA missed (I’m sure you’re probably asking how anything could be left out of a 1,000-page document but hey, Citizen Scientist, you never know).

In addition to writing a comment on your own, there are numerous ways you can share the NCA with your campus and community and really spread this climate science goodness around! Read on for just a few ideas from NWF Campus Ecology.

• Host a forum on your campus. View the list of the 60 Federal Advisory Committee members, or open any chapter of interest for a list of authors to find one affiliated with your college or university, or an institution nearby. Ask that person to speak about the effects of climate change on your particular region, or their topic of expertise. Organize a follow-up action with the attendees—coordinated letters to the editor of the local paper, signatures on a petition to your college president to transition from fossil fuels on campus, or agree on another educational event to hold in the future.
  • Make sure you have several laptops at your event and encourage attendees to submit comments online before leaving the event. Prior to the event, write a few draft comments on various issues that attendees can personalize and submit. (Note that each person will have to create an account to submit his or her comment—but it’s quick and easy!)
  • If you need help contacting a climate expert in your area, email us at campus@nwf.org! We’re happy to help.
• Hold tabling sessions in your student union building or other high-traffic area and talk to your classes to encourage students at your university to submit comments to the NCA.
• Organize a “Climate Adaptation Work Day” on your campus—build a community garden, plant native plants along a stream, promote alternative methods of transportation—all in the name of climate science and changing our behaviors to slow climate change! This NCA is different than the previous two in that this report discusses the need for mitigation as well as adaptation—cutting carbon pollution while also preparing for the impacts from our previous climate-altering behaviors. College and university campuses nationwide are leading the way in reducing their carbon footprints. Check out our Campus Sustainability Case Study Database for ideas and inspiration.

So tell your friends and tell your neighbors about the National Climate Assessment comment period. There’s no better time for civic engagement than the present! Remember that the comment period closes April 12.

Will you host a forum or a work day on your campus? Take photos and share them with us on Facebook or Twitter, or better yet, send us an email (campus@nwf.org) and maybe we’ll feature a guest blog post about your NCA event! 

Join the Campus Ecology email list for the latest news on campus sustainability initiatives.

Especially since 2012 was the hottest year ever recorded, the arctic sea ice extent set a new record low in recorded history, the northeast was devastated by Hurricane Sandy, and drought and wildfires struck all over the western part of the United States.

But there is one group who may just need a report to actually show them that climate change is real and is happening now. You guessed it, it’s Congress.

Back in 1990 when the U.S. Congress passed (and President George H.W. Bush signed) the U.S. Global Change Research Act, it actually mandated that federal agencies produce just such a report every four years. The latest installment of this National Climate Assessment was recently released in draft form for public review.  This draft report is the most comprehensive review of U.S. climate impacts to date. It includes analyses of how climate change is already affecting specific regions and sectors of national relevance, from agriculture to health to transportation.

Flickr simm0ns777

It’s like the kid who has a math book with all the answers in the back, but refuses to do the work to find the solutions. That kid usually fails the class. In this case, Congress is failing its country. Let’s make them do the math.

So when the President addressed climate in his Inauguration speech, saying,

“We, the people, still believe that our obligations as Americans are not just to ourselves, but to all posterity.We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.

“Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms.

“The path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult. But America cannot resist this transition; we must lead it. We cannot cede to other nations the technology that will power new jobs and new industries—we must claim its promise. That is how we will maintain our economic vitality and our national treasure—our forests and waterways; our croplands and snow-capped peaks. That is how we will preserve our planet, commanded to our care by God. That’s what will lend meaning to the creed our fathers once declared.”

I think he’s saying, “Hey, we can’t deny or ignore science any longer. It is time to take action.”

As we know, action is not something that Congress is particularly keen on these days. That’s why we’ve got to push them. Right now is the time to raise our voices so that when the report lands on their desks next year they know what to do with it. And they know we’re paying attention.

Tell Congress to limit carbon pollution contributing to climate change!

Draft National Climate Assessment Report Available for Public Review

National Wildlife Photo Contest entry by Lois Settlemeyer.

Ad: Hold BP Accountable During Settlement Negotiations

January 7 – Today, the National Wildlife Federation unveiled an ad campaign on the Washington Metro subway system aimed at influencing the Department of Justice’s settlement negotiations with BP. The ads are located in the Navy Archives Metro station, close to the Department of Justice’s Pennsylvania Avenue headquarters.

“Americans from all walks of life reeled in horror as BP’s negligence sent more than 200 million gallons of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico,” said Aileo Weinmann, associate communications director for the National Wildlife Federation. “We’re sending a signal to staff at the Department of Justice to hold BP fully accountable for up to $50 billion in civil fines and penalties.”

And here are highlights from NWF in the News:

• The Washington Times: Lawmakers seek leverage on Obama energy push
• News & Observer: Provide winter treats for the birds 
• Bayou Buzz: Oiled pelican photo in HOLD BP ACCOUNTABLE ad greets Justice employees at Washington Metro station

For more, visit www.nwf.org/news 

What’s in the report?

Today, I had a chance to see the draft at a public meeting of the federal advisory committee overseeing the report development. Some initial, big-picture reactions:

• The report clearly and strongly reaffirms the findings of past climate assessments: we are seeing climate change now and the cause is primarily the burning of fossil fuels.  It notes that these conclusions are buttressed by new evidence and repeated scrutiny of existing data.
• The report includes detailed and definitive information about climate impacts, some of which are increasing. It points out that all Americans are experiencing climate change, an important recognition that this is a problem we are facing here and now.
• The projections of possible future climate change make it clear that our choices about carbon emissions will have a significant effect on the magnitude of impacts. In particular, in order to reduce emissions to the levels that the global community has agreed is necessary to avoid most serious impacts, we need to stabilize and reduce global emissions within a few years. For the US to accomplish this, additional policies will be needed.  Existing efforts are not even close to what is needed.
• Responses to climate change—both slowing emissions of carbon pollution (what climate scientists call “mitigation”) and efforts to respond to and prepare for unavoidable climate impacts (“climate adaptation”)—are examined in detail for the first time in this third assessment report. This is an important step in the right direction, recognizing that the National Climate Assessment needs to more directly address the questions of decision makers. It states that current actions are not sufficient to meet the challenges facing us today.

In short, this draft report reinforces the certainty within the scientific community that the climate is changing and makes a compelling case that significant and urgent action is needed to address the root causes.

How can you get involved?

Wildlife across the country will be impacted by climate change, according to a new draft National Climate Assessment. Photo by William Wiley.

• San Diego, CA – January 18, 2013. More information here.
• Syracuse, NY – January 23, 2013. More information here.
• Lincoln, NE – February 4, 2013. More information here.
• Anchorage, AK – February 5, 2013. As a part of Alaska Forum on the Environment, register here.
• Ann Arbor, MI – February 12, 2013. More information here.
• Tampa, FL – February 19, 2013. More information here.
• Portland, OR – March 12, 2013. More information here.

And, last but not least, let President Obama and the Environmental Protection Agency know that you support efforts to curb carbon pollution from power plants. Send a message today voicing your concern that the latest science demands that we take action.

Flickr's Tina Neale

The hearing, Impacts of Rising Sea Levels on Domestic Infrastructures, was one of the only hearings on climate change that Congress has held this year. In that sense, it’s an important chance to talk about global warming, America’s biggest threat that Congress refuses to address. As National Wildlife Federation Climate Scientist Dr. Amanda Staudt blogged in advance of the hearing, “The climate-related threats to our nation’s energy systems compound the vulnerability associated with our aging & crumbling energy infrastructure, which is already causing environmental damage.” However, the committee made clear that this “is an oversight hearing, not intended to lead to legislation.”

I headed down to Dirksen Senate Office Building this morning to watch the hearing and kept a running diary …

9:27am - The hearing is set to begin at 9:30am. The committee includes some of Congress’ biggest champions of climate action (Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Maria Cantwell) and some of its staunchest polluter allies (Sen. Joe Manchin, Sen. John Barrasso) so we could see some fireworks. The witness panel:

Photo credit: Flickr (koocbor)

I’m pleased that the ENR committee is highlighting these important issues. All policymakers need to understand that climate impacts – such as sea level rise and extreme weather – are harming us in ways that may not appear readily connected. In fact, a 2011 NWF report More Extreme Weather and the US Energy Infrastructure focused on exactly these sorts of connections between climate change and the vulnerability of our energy systems.

Coastal Energy Infrastructure at Risk

Rising sea level certainly does threaten our near-shore oil and gas pipelines and refineries, as well as power plants, which are often located near the coast to make use of the ample water available needed for standard electricity generation. And, climate change is the main driver for sea level rise, especially for the 21^st century.

Over the last century, climate change has contributed to about 8 inches of sea level rise globally. Some areas, like the Gulf Coast, have experienced even more sea level rise due to local land subsidence.  The best scientific projections for the coming century: 1-2 feet of global mean sea level rise by 2050, and 2-6 feet by 2100.  About 3 feet of sea level rise would inundate more than 9000 km² of coastal areas in the lower 48 states, according to a new study lead by Climate Central.

And, it’s not just sea level rise. Coastal energy infrastructure is also vulnerable to hurricanes. NWF’s 2011 report highlights how vulnerable oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf region is to hurricanes:

About 30 percent of the U.S. oil supply and 20 percent of the natural gas supply is produced in the Gulf of Mexico region, an area highly vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes. As climate change makes it likely that these storms will become more intense and bring more severe flooding, the billions of dollars worth of infrastructure invested in this region are at risk. This includes some 4,000 offshore oil and gas platforms, 31,000 miles of pipeline, and more than 25 onshore refineries. To make matters worse, much of this infrastructure is aging, making it even more susceptible to failures.

Weather-Related Power Outages

Power outages are becoming a more frequent nuisance for many of us, and an increasing number are due to weather. Just check out this chart that NWF created based on the reports submitted by electricity companies for major outages. Changes in extreme weather, power transmission infrastructure and maintenance practices, and demographic trends may all be contributing to more frequent power outages.

Furthermore, electricity generation is likely to be affected by water shortages, especially as climate change brings more extreme heat and drought. About 89 percent of electricity in the United States is generated in thermoelectric power plants that require water for cooling. Water demand from the energy sector is projected to increase by 32 percent by 2030, while droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe. This impending crisis is not widely recognized as a future cause of electricity outages.

Building a Better Energy System

The climate-related threats to our nation’s energy systems compound the vulnerability associated with the aging and crumbling energy infrastructure, which is already causing environmental damage. It is high time that we make investments in a new energy infrastructure that is more resilient in the face of more extreme weather and climate. We recommend that the nation undertake a detailed national climate vulnerability assessment for the energy industry and develop climate adaptation plans to address vulnerabilities.

Furthermore, we must begin designing, strategically locating, and making investments in energy systems—such as appropriately sited offshore wind and distributed photovoltaic solar—that are more resilient to severe weather and climate disruptions, while at the same time help us take meaningful steps away from our dependence on coal, oil, and gas. EPA’s carbon standards for new power plants are an important step toward helping us build a more resilient power infrastructure and one that is not adding to the problem is critical.

NASA Project Team

Twenty-five participants attended the Institute last week, including 9 faculty from our three community college partners, three NASA staff, other project team members from the University of Toledo, Columbia University and Moraine Valley Community College, and JFF and NWF staff.

Reviewing NASA Resources with Amanda Staudt, NWF Climate Scientist

Over the next two years of this project new course curriculum and best practices will be shared on the partner campuses, campuses in the region, as well as colleges and universities in the NWF and JFF networks.

NWF’s EcoSchools program received a similar grant from NASA to develop curriculum for the K-12 audience in 2009. Resources developed through this program are being referenced for the community college project.

And wouldn’t you know that U.S. presidential election cycles pop up during Leap Years, giving us an extra day of campaigning and attack ads, especially onerous because in politician years, a day is like 12 months.

But it can’t be helped. The need for Leap Year is an excellent example of how the natural world just won’t fall neatly in line with human plans, schemes and machinations. The Earth circles the sun at the rate of about 365.242199 days—just roughly speaking, you see—which means our 365-day calendars fall six hours behind each year. In a century, the calendar would be off by 24 days—nearly a month. So every four years we add the otherwise elusive February 29th to the calendar, allowing our appointments to catch up with the orbiting speed of the planet, which, by the way, is more or less 66,486.717569 miles per hour.

Where’d Leap Year Come From?

The sun sets behind trees at Georgia's Okefenokee Swamp in a photo entered by Jack T. Sandow in the NWF Annual Photo Contest. Variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun make Leap Years a chronological necessity.

Now the injection of a Leap Day occurs in every year evenly divisible by 4, unless the year also can be evenly divided by 100, in which case it’s not a Leap Year, unless it also can be evenly divided by 400, in which case it is a Leap Year. If this sounds confusing, well, you can perhaps forgive Gaius for his oversight, which must not have been made easier by the use of Roman numerals.

Luck of the 29th

Of course, a date as wayward in its recurrence as February 29th is bound to have some myth attached to it, the human mind being as superstitious as it is. In Scotland, being born on Leap Day is considered unlucky. In Greece, marrying during a Leap Year is a bad sign, and marrying on Leap Day is even worse (though it would simplify anniversary celebrations). In some European nations, Leap Day is a sort of Sadie Hawkins event in which women propose to men. This day is also called Bachelors’ Day in some nations where, according to tradition, if the man turns down the woman, he must give her gifts (you can see the potential for abuse of this system). Among the upper classes in some countries, the demurring man was supposed to give the woman a dozen gloves, which she could wear to conceal her lack of a wedding ring.

Planetary Changes

The vagaries of the Earth’s rush around the sun isn’t the only factor that can remind us that what happens in space doesn’t stay in space. For example, the spin of the Earth on its axis, currently at a speed of about 1,070 miles per hour at the Equator, is slowing down. During the age of dinosaurs, a day was probably around 23 hours long. In the Devonian period, some 370 million years ago—long before dinosaurs—the day was around 22 hours long. So when someone complains, “There are only so many hours in the day,” you may smugly reply, “It could be worse.”

Other factors affect the measuring of time. Last November, scientists who study this sort of thing discovered that the Earth’s axial spin actually sped up after the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, a powerful stream of ocean water, slowed down. Each day from roughly November 8 to the 20 was about 0.1 millisecond shorter than usual. Before the planet resumed normal speed, we lost a good 1.2 milliseconds, which can ruin a two-week vacation. Such shifts may become more common as climate changes in the wake of global warming, because some scientists suspect that warming trends caused the alterations in the sea current’s velocity.

Record Leap Day Births

A Norwegian family holds the world’s record for the official number of children born within a family on Leap Day—Mrs. Karin Henriksen, from the town of Andenes, gave birth to three children on consecutive Leap Days—1960, 1964 and 1968.

Were you born on Leap Day?  If so, perhaps you can tell us in the comment section how, or when, you celebrate your birthday anniversary.

To see more photos like those in this blog, or to enter the 42nd Annual NWF Photo Contest, visit the NWF Photo Contest.

Much of the information in this blog comes from the Time and Date website,  which has tons of data on, well, time and dates.

National Wildlife magazine online offers you more information on animals and birds.

Kids Learning About Pika Habitat

The recent revelation that the Heartland Institute was pledged $100,000 in anonymous funds to develop a K-12 school curriculum to inject how controversial climate change science is is just one of these tactics.

It has been alleged, per a set of leaked internal documents, that the Institute, a free-market policy and advocacy organization, is again working to undermine K-12 climate change education. The leaked documents, which Heartland claims were illegally leaked and faked, are not needed to examine consistent tactics used by the extreme right to keep sound and needed climate change education out of America’s K-12 classrooms.

5 Tactics for Mis-Educating Kids About Climate Change

Here are five common tactics that extreme right organizations, such as Heartland, use to keep children from being equipped with the knowledge they will need to cope with the future problems we “adults” are imposing on them.

1. Create Controversy Where There is None

No matter how well-established a complex scientific subject is (human-caused climate change for example) it is still complex!  There will always be fringe theories, factual inconsistencies, and even whacky ideas that run counter the mainstream scientific view.  But, much as an attorney will strive to get a criminal off by planting “reasonable doubt” in a jury’s mind, the extreme right will seek to elevate these fringe theories and minor inconsistencies to the level of full credibility and parity.  These same groups have used this technique, for example, to say that the doctrine of creationism should be given equal time in American science classrooms with the science of evolution.

Though climate change science is settled within the scientific community,  the simple, loud assertion that it remains “uncertain” has a chilling effect on it being used in the classroom and there are thousands of teachers who become nervous about even teaching subjects perceived as controversial.  Moreover, state and school district curricula designers are likewise deterred from promoting climate change education due to the persistent and undeserved cloud of scietific controversy.  Planting seeds of doubt and treating a subject as controversial was a tried and true method used by the tobacco industry during prime smoking and health debates.

2.     Exploit the “Radical Media’s” Inherent Reasonableness

The American media loves to report stories that compare opposing viewpoints.  This is mostly thought of as balanced journalism.  It is taught in journalism schools, is considered professional rigor and is a door to exploitation by the extreme right.  Even when a subject is largely without serious scientific controversy, journalists will often find a contrarian and give his or her viewpoint equal time. We saw this practice in operation for many years with respect to smoking.  Each time a public health agency or university would issue a new study on how smoking contributed to cancer, the tobacco industry invariably appeared in the same article asserting that it was not yet proven that smoking caused cancer.  Climate change science suffers from a bad case of this problem.  Studies done that compare scientific literature to media reports show there is zero disagreement over climate change’s causes in peer reviewed scientific  literature but more than half of all news articles treat this same science as “in doubt.”  It is highly ironic that, for all of the extreme right’s whining about liberal radicalism in the media, it is so completely skilled at capitalizing on the tendency of journalists to want to present both sides of an issue even when there is no real issue.

3. Demonize the Nation’s Hardworking Educators

Principals and teachers are the extreme right’s favorite punching bags.  Instead of seeing America’s 3.5 million educators and school administrators as hard working Americans to whom we have safely entrusted the future of our children for the past two centuries, the right describes them as agenda-driven radicals bent on filling students’ minds with politically loaded dogma.  The alleged Heartland Institute documents say that “Principals and teachers are heavily biased toward the alarmist perspective.”  In reality, America’s principals and teachers are not alarmists.  They are reflective of American society and are made up of all kinds of people with all kinds of religious and political views.  What they share, however, is a desire to provide the most professionally delivered and helpful education possible to our children.  They are also highly responsive to community norms and parent comments and, as such, are not inclined to even teach subjects deemed controversial in that community.  It is true that schools do offer sex education and science teachers will indeed avoid treating creationism as a bonafide scientific subject, but this does not make them crazy radicals.  America’s educators are real people, working in real places and doing the very best they can for our kids.

4. Play the Worried Parent Card

If you want to get American parents riled up, just tell them their kids are getting faulty information and flawed education at school.   This favorite tactic by the extreme right is used to keep climate change or environmental education of any sort out of the classroom.  It portays it as “junk science,” inaccurate, one-side or any of a dozen labels that translate to “bad education.”   Truth is the environmental education community and science educators are rigorous and careful about the integrity of their teaching and the materials they provide.  It has been a decades-long mission by environmental educators to have programs that are fair and accurate, scientifically sound and balanced.  This has been proven, even in Congressional inquiries.  What makes environmental education different from many classroom subjects, however, is a focus on skill development and that includes going beyond education on scientific principles and problems to having students actually learn about solutions.  Most people think of education on problem solving as an educational breakthrough but the extreme right wants parents to think of this as brainwashing radicalism.   The real question: is it kinder to hide information about environmental challenges from our children and keep them in the dark about climate change or to give them the tools to handle it as they takes the reins of society?

5. Paint with the Government Conspiracy Brush

When the extreme right gets really frustrated with a lack of traction for its campaigns to keep climate change and environmental education out of K-12 schools, it resorts to the old “loss of freedom” ploy and describes such educational efforts as signaling a government takeover.  It is always interesting how the concept of providing our youngsters with the tools they need to fend for themselves in an uncertain environmental future is somehow cast as a government conspiracy.  To most, developing self-help environmental skills is a very American idea steeped in the notion of free choice and individualism.

The Heartland Institute is not a lone participant in the extreme right’s war on climate change education and giving our kids a real understanding of what is happening and what can be done about it.  It is unfortunate, but noteworthy, that the Institute and other combatants in the war on k-12 and climate change and environmental education have such deep roots in funding from the fossil fuel industry.